By: Cory Ellerd
Submitted: 2010-04-19 15:04:08 | Word Count: 794
Clearly as the populace ages the need for health care services will increase. The only question to ask is will there be money to pay for this bigger need and where will it come from in this economy? The previous arguement between the conservatives and liberals over health care really centers on whether it should have happened at all, and if it does who will pay for the additional thirty million inhabitants to be insured.
Concerns have been brought to light that the expenditure will be paid for by cuts to Medicare and Social Security. Any cuts to these programs by politicians have long been considered political suicide. To avert any attacks from skeptics of their program the administration states:
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"The Act will protect and preserve Medicare as a commitment to America's seniors. ...The Act takes important steps to make sure that we can keep the commitment of Medicare for the next generation of seniors. Medicare is a sacred trust with America's seniors, and this Act preserves it." I can feel the affection.
Another attack is that the program will enlarge the financial burden on state and the federal government but they argue against that; "It will save thousands of dollars in drug costs for Medicare beneficiaries by closing the coverage gap called the 'donut hole'." Doctors, nurses and hospitals will be incentivized so they will improve care and moderate unnecessary negligences that hurt patients. They even suggest that this program will save the public money by "ending massive overpayments to insurance companies that cost American taxpayers billions of dollars per year."
Realistically, we can assume it will cost more than they think, and the savings will not be as great. However, it is abundantly clear that the elevation in health care costs is unsustainable and the current economic climate is intensifying the problem.
When millions lose their jobs, they also lose their health coverage, a dire situation for many who are the most vulnerable, the young, old and those suffering from poverty.
Growing Demand
A recent study shows the number of oncologists has more than doubled over the past twenty years, supply is estimated to only go up by 20% between now and 2020. Need for oncology services is expected to grow by forty eight % during the same period of time. Predictions were based on current cancer rates and delivery patterns applied to the expected U.S. population in 2020. Without a dramatic change in cancer care treatment or delivery between now and 2020, the nation is will face an acute shortage of oncologists.*
There are about 13,000 oncologists practicing in the USA. Over half of all oncologists are aged 50 years or greater and will be 65 or more by the year 2020. About 500 fellows a year complete an oncology post-graduate education program, and oncology program directors report limited plans to increase the number
of training slots between now and the 2010-11 academic year.*
Oncology historically provides care to one sector of the people, the growing population of people aged sixty five or older. Additionally, as treatment has become more victorious there are more cancer survivors to handle for extended periods of time which contributes to an increase in need and demand for oncologists. In fact, Cancer survivors make up a noteworthy proportion of overall cancer visits. *
As a result, the stock of and want for oncologists is estimated to move from a relatively state of balance in 2005 to a state of minor shortage in 2020, with visit demand growing at a much quicker pace than the available visit supply.*
Healthcare Reform
Even with the health bill conclusively signed into law its effect on our health care is not recognized. By 2014 there will be an increase in the enrollment into insurance programs. This build up when, shared with the long term aging of the populace, should push want for services and therefore fees higher. However, no one yet knows what will happen to recompense rates from government funded insurances and this new program. The question is will there be a cut of reimbursement rates for different specialties by government funded insurances and this new program that may conversely become a decreasing factor of the income of all specialties including Oncologists and related specialties/subspecialties.
*American Society of Clinical Oncology commissioned the Center for Workforce
Studies at the Association of American Medical Colleges
