By: Health Insurance
Submitted: 2009-10-05 16:14:50 | Word Count: 553
A nonprofit organization aimed at preventing epidemics released state and national data Thursday that estimates the potential impact of the H1N1 flu virus.
Jeff Levi, executive director of Trust for America's Health, said the FluSurge model, developed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, uses assumptions from the 1968 flu pandemic that estimates the United States is headed toward a "mild pandemic outbreak" lasting about eight weeks and infecting 35 percent of the population.
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For Kansas, this could mean 980,747 people would become sick with the virus and 13,331 people may need to be hospitalized if 35 percent of the nation's population becomes ill.
Nationally, it could mean approximately 90 million Americans will become ill, 1.8 million will need hospitalization and nearly 30,000 could die.
"This is a higher attack rate than you would see in a normal seasonal flu," Levi said. "More people will require hospitalization because more people will be getting sick."
The data was released in a report titled "H1N1 Challenges Ahead." The report provides statistics for each state, as well as potential difficulties the United States will encounter leading up to and during the pandemic.
Challenges include a limited amount of vaccine when released in October during a time when the virus is expected to become more widespread, competing seasonal flu, the strain on the medical system, and reaching young adults and minorities who appear to be more susceptible to the H1N1 virus. Typically, Levi said, fewer young adults and minorities receive seasonal flu vaccines.
If the pandemic reaches 35 percent of Americans, the data shows that five weeks into the pandemic 15 states would be at or exceed hospital bed capacity, while another 12 states would be at 75 percent to 99 percent of their capacity. Kansas would be at 43 percent capacity.
Levi said it will mean developing triage systems, communicating more efficiently in more specific ways and in more languages. He said it will be important to make sure Americans understand when to seek medical care and when not to.
"I think the other short-term challenge is we've never done a mass vaccination distribution system as we've done this time," Levi said. "There will be glitches."
Levi said despite the challenges, the country is more prepared for a pandemic than several years ago, noting a large monetary investment starting in the Bush administration for planning and improving vaccine capacity capabilities. At that time, about $6 billion was put toward planning for such a pandemic.
Additionally, five years ago there was only one company producing vaccines, Levi said. Now there are four.
Levi said the Obama administration has released $6.1 billion for the H1N1 virus, most of which has gone toward buying vaccinations.
"We really want the message from this report to be that public health officials are doing everything they can to mitigate this, but it is a pandemic," Levi said.
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